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GROUPTHINK? Word 'community' imparts instant legitimacy (Photo credit: sillygwailo)
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30 Years IAEA - EC JRC (01010101) (Photo credit: IAEA Imagebank)Omitted variable fraud: vast evidence for solar climate driver rates one oblique sentence in AR5
Alec Rawls
“Expert review” of the First Order Draft of AR5 closed on the 10th. Here is the first paragraph of my submitted critique:My training is in economics where we are very familiar with what statisticians call “the omitted variable problem” (or when it is intentional, “omitted variable fraud”). Whenever an explanatory variable is omitted from a statistical analysis, its explanatory power gets misattributed to any correlated variables that are included. This problem is manifest at the very highest level of AR5, and is built into each step of its analysis.Continue reading →
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- one can venture a wild, unscientific guessestimate of the number of bribes that Afghans are asked to pay every year. That number is just north of 1 billion, or approximately 3 million bribes a day.
I can hear the statisticians screaming. These are huge assumptions. Trying to put a number on bribery in one of the world’s most corrupt countries using a public opinion survey is about as reliable as asking teenagers how often they masturbate. But the surveys do give some sense of scale.
All the information above is quoted from a report released today by U.S. military auditors. The report, a quarterly update from the Office of Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, also offers some numbers on the work it did to tackle that corruption problem during the last three months of 2011.
Here are a few “accomplishments” the office thought noteworthy:
• completed three audits…
SIGAR, as this auditing office is known, has a staff of 133. That’s clearly not enough to cover a war that’s costing U.S. taxpayers more than $2 billion a week. And many government and military auditors are honest, dedicated people doing the best they can in a bureaucracy that can bring tremendous pressure to bear against them.
• participated in investigations that resulted in two individuals sentenced for bribery…
• referred 40 individuals and companies for suspension and debarment
• opened 20 new investigations…
That said, even the most cash-strapped, podunk county prosecutor’s office would be embarrassed by these numbers. Three audits completed. Two bribery convictions. Three million bribes a day.
No wonder “Afghans also said that ISAF and international development partners need to play larger roles in efforts to address the problem.”
The report is titled “10 Years of Reconstruction,” as though what it contains were somehow worth celebrating. In it, the word failure appears 7 times. The word progress appears 81 times.
What the auditors, however well-meaning, cannot say is that the International Security Assistance Force—which brings boatloads of American dollars into the country, and tries to make legitimate statesmen out of guys who are essentially gang leaders—plays a large role in enabling corruption in Afghanistan.
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(99) The Agitator
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